American Declinism

http://uncadarrell.typepad.com/unca_darrell/2010/04/march-20-niall-ferguson-and-american-declinism.html

This blog is by 'Unca Darrell', who sounds like my worst nightmare; 'Old. Conservative. Christian. In love with my wife, Texas, America, Western Civilization, and Jesus.' If that doesn't scream REPUBLICAN, I don't know what does! The blog begins with a small passage from an article written by Niall Ferguson for Foreign Affairs. Unca Darrell then offers his opinions and further posts opinions from Mark Steyn, Josef Joffe, co-editor of Die Zeit and Robert J. Lieber, who's article appeared in Foreign Affairs in 2008.

Ferguson's article is pessimistic (and rightly so) and concentrates on US fiscal policy and how it is America's downfall. He says that although the U.S debt will not be absolutely dire until 2080, the paranoia that is present in modern day America may make it much worse as it could only take one headline on a slow news day to bring everything crashing down. He comments that military expenditure would most likely be cut (should cuts be made) because 'unlike mandatory entitlements, it is discretionary. . . . . For the United States' enemies in Iran and Iraq, it must be consoling to know that U.S. fiscal policy today is preprogrammed to reduce the resources available for all overseas military operations in the years ahead.' He has a point, but I disagree that military expenditure would be the first to be cut. Obama has pledged that the Military budget for 2011 will be somewhere in the region of $721 billion and even though he said he planned to pull out of Iraq, that hasn't happened and even more troops have been sent to Afghanistan. So although we all hoped after nearly 10 years this would all end, the light at the end of the tunnel is slowly disappearing. But is it all doom and gloom?

Apparently not. Unca Darrell is optimistic, as are the other contributors. He agrees with most of what Ferguson says, but he believes that taking the optimistic route may be more beneficial. However I believe this is more like burying your head in the sand and the lasting effects of being so optimistic is only superficial. I think Steyn realises this but Unca Darrell, Joffe and Lieber are all of the viewpoint that America is still the world's number one superpower with Darrell boldly expressing that there is no other country that even comes close to stealing the USA's limelight. Unfortunately, Darrell doesn't seem to understand that America is no longer in a one horse race. China is coming up the rear, and quickly. Niall's term 'Chimerica' as discussed in the seminar group is a testament to just how much of a threat the Chinese pose. In the next 40 years will we be looking at Chinese films with English subtitles? Will all future exports (culture, sports, films, starts, music) be coming from East Asia instead of the USA? The aforementioned men don't seem to think so. We have to look on the bright side of things and remember that America has had two centuries of growth, not decline. They have seen through two world wars and a depression and yet they still manage to have a defense budget that 51% of the rest of the world's, they have some of the most prestigious higher education establishments with high success rates, and as Joffe writes: 'These advantages include America's size, wealth, human and material resources, military strength, competitiveness, and liberal political and economic traditions, but also a remarkable flexibility, dynamism, and capacity for reinvention.' The USA cannot be touched. Unless of course you have the attitude of Unca Darrell and complete lack of faith in your government; 'Still, it would be foolish to say our country cannot fail. And one way it could fail is by doing exactly what the Obama administration is doing now -- borrowing profligately from future generations, bankrupting them.'

So is America in decline? Watch this space.